Estimates of hot money inflows, the first to find out the hot money inflows into China wholesale channel,UGG boots clearance, while the second cross-border capital flows to obtain accurate data, including accurate trade and investment data. Unfortunately, the current progress in these two areas are different, such as of man.
measure the scale of hot money, the easiest way is to look at the international balance of payments of errors and omissions, and if that is negative, indicating that capital flight, if that is positive, indicating that hot money inflows. error and omissions are also equal to the amount of foreign exchange reserves less the current account and capital projects, and. If you use this method to measure the scale of China's hot money, then there in 2003 and 2004, hot money inflows, the scale were 184 billion U.S. dollars and 27 billion .2005 dollar and the existence of capital flight in 2006, the scale was 16.8 billion and 129 billion dollars. This result does not match our common sense, because in our minds, in 2005 and 2006 should be a large inflow of hot money. with errors and omissions appear to measure the scale of hot money method is too simple. First, the errors and omissions may indeed be caused by statistical errors, not hot money inflows; Second, the hot money can by entering the current and capital projects Chinese border.
commonly used industry measure the scale of hot money approach is to use foreign exchange reserves less the amount of trade surplus and foreign direct investment. calculated in this way, then from 2003 to 2007 were 378 hot money inflows billion U.S. dollars, 114.1 billion U.S. dollars, 466 billion dollars, 600 million U.S. dollars and 1170 million. If this method is accurate, then basically hot money inflows in 2006. However, according to Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green's analysis, because of between central bank and commercial banks foreign exchange swaps, the central bank allowed commercial banks to deposit in foreign currency reserves and other institutional innovation, and the use of special treasury bonds to create substitution method of foreign exchange reserves in the investment companies, institutional arrangements, using the above method and the 2006 2007 was significantly underestimated the scale of hot money. For example, the central bank and commercial banks in 2006, about 75.8 billion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange swaps, so the scale of hot money inflows in 2006 was approximately $ 76,400,000,000. taking into account the establishment of CIC, the central bank and swaps between commercial banks and the reserve fund operations and other factors, the actual 2007 exchange funds flowing into China may be as high as 550 billion U.S. dollars, far higher than the 461.9 billion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange reserves growth, then calculated as described above may be hot money inflows in 2007 reached 201.8 billion U.S. dollars is huge. However, according to actual foreign exchange inflows by Stephen Green - the current account surplus-FDI-foreign exchange reserves investment income method of calculation, the scale of hot money inflows in 2007 was $ 87,000,000,000.
must be pointed out is that China's current FDI data is not uniform. For example, in 2004, the Ministry of Commerce statistics, FDI was 60.6 billion U.S. dollars, SAFE statistics 549 million; 2005, the Ministry of Commerce statistics, FDI was 60.3 billion U.S. dollars, the outer tube Bureau of Statistics 824 million. If the two bodies of statistical data of systemic bias can be understood, then the Ministry of Commerce of FDI data in 2004 than SAFE, SAFE 2005, Ministry of Commerce of FDI data in the conflict than puzzling phenomenon. The key differences between the data, but also affect the accuracy of hot money an important factor in the scale of measurement.
by changes in foreign exchange reserves equal to the amount of hot money inflows minus the trade surplus and FDI in the calculation method, which implies the assumption that trade surplus and FDI is not hot money. However, the reality, the hot money either through transfer pricing and false trade,UGG boots, etc., into China through trade surpluses; also be capital investment or through a false used for other purposes, etc., through the FDI channel flow into China. In other words, this method still underestimated the scale of hot money inflows. For example, the view that, in 2005 and 2006 China's trade surplus soared,cheap UGG boots, which may contain a large influx of hot money .2002 to 2004 China's trade surplus was 30.4 billion, 25.5 billion and 321 billion U.S. dollars, is relatively stable, but from 2005 to 2007 the number soared to 102 billion, respectively, and $ 262 000 000 000 177 500 000 000 .2005 soaring trade surplus and the RMB is just exchange reform occurred in the same year, the authenticity of this surge in trade surplus is doubtful. If it is assumed from 2005 to 2007 China's trade pattern has not changed significantly, and stable foreign trade surplus in 2002 and 2004 levels and slightly to grow, only the 2005 to 2007 in respect of the foreign trade surplus may contain more than 400 billion U.S. dollars of false trade, this part should also be counted as hot money inflows.
described above for each year's estimates of hot money inflows, then the current total size of hot money in China how much is that? on this issue is still the eyes of the beholder wise see wisdom. summarize the results of several, according to foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus and FDI by the method, calculated from 2003 to 2007 The total size of hot money inflow of 3161 million; take into account foreign exchange swaps, foreign exchange reserves and the CIC and other factors, then this 5 years to the total size of hot money inflows rose to 476.7 billion U.S. dollars; we take into account false trade, then in 2003 to 2007 the total size of hot money inflows rose to around 880 billion U.S. dollars. This figure does not take into account false FDI inflows. so, economists measure the results at home and abroad, the current overall size of the hot money in China about 500 billion to $ 1,000,UGG bailey button,000,000,000 or so. It should be said that this figure is quite staggering.
more concern is that in the first quarter of hot money into China is accelerating the trend. for the quarter increased 153.9 billion U.S. dollars in China's foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus 41.4 billion, FDI was 27.4 billion. rough estimate, the first quarter of this year's hot money inflows into China was approximately $ 85,100,000,000. This increased inflow of hot money is closely related to the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi. the first quarter of this year, the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar 4 %, of course, hot money inflows further strengthened the motivation for arbitrage.
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